Early Warning System and Preventive Diplomacy in Land-Based Conflicts among Pastoralist Communities in Samburu County

Abstract

The use of preventive diplomacy in conflict prevention can be traced back to various human civilizations where treaties were concluded, alliances formed, inter-ethnic marriages solemnized and various forms of traditional and scientific knowledge employed to prevent inter-state and intra-state conflicts. However, localizing this strategy at community level remains a challenge due to lack of institutional structures and resources to advance capacity of preventive diplomacy in land-based conflicts. The study examines the influence of early warning system on land-based conflicts among the pastoralist communities in Samburu County. The study was guided by conflict prevention theory, and the target population comprised 424 individuals from different institutions involved in peace and security discourses in Samburu County, Kenya. Using Yamane formula to calculate the sample size, stratified random sampling technique was applied to select 206 respondents. Primary data was collected using a questionnaire, and it was processed using descriptive, inferential, and thematic content analysis techniques. Analyzed data was presented using tables, figures, and narratives. Findings indicated that early warning system is used by both the state and the non-state actors to predict trends of violent conflicts from open source information, inter alia, NDMA which publishes early warning system in a monthly bulletin; smart-phone applications that monitor rangeland conditions, and disseminating threats alerts. Complementing scientific methods with traditional knowledge to forecast the future is indispensable, and so are the District Task Forces which work closely with Samburu district peace committees to monitor livestock migratory routes and conduct night watch on herders to prevent them from rearming. The study concluded that the early warning system tool has been applied to predict trends on land-based conflicts in Samburu, but there is need to increase resources in order to increase its capacity. Synergy between multiple actors is recommended to avoid a confused response.